Crisis alimentaria en Guatemala.

 

In Guatemala, Food Insecurity a Neglected Threat

Un mercado de frutos guatemalteco.

By Jan-Albert Hootsen | 13 Jul 2011


Guatemala is confronting numerous problems as it prepares for presidential elections scheduled for Sept. 11. Organized criminal groups have made parts of the country all but lawless. Corruption and poverty remain widespread. Frequent natural disasters have strained state capacity. Even the preparations for the elections themselves have been plagued by political violence, with two dozen political workers killed in 2011 alone. But one problem has yet to become a major feature of the presidential campaign, despite its gravity: food insecurity, which threatens millions in Guatemala.


With food prices rising globally, social upheaval over increasingly expensive basic staples has become more common. Food security was cited as one of the main causes of the popular revolts in Tunisia and Egypt. In Bolivia, President Evo Morales was forced to abandon a public event earlier this year after angry miners threw dynamite while protesting against food shortages.

World Bank President Robert Zoellick warned in February that food prices are rising to "dangerous levels and threaten tens of millions of poor people," while Abdolreza Abbassian, a senior economist at the Rome-based U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization told Bloomberg Businessweek that "the low-income food deficit countries are on the front line of the current surge in world prices."

Guatemala is a particularly serious case. According to the World Bank, approximately 75 percent of the population lives below the institution's $2 per day poverty line, while nearly half of all Guatemalan children suffer from malnutrition. The prices of black beans and corn, the two main staples of most subsistence diets in Guatemala, have risen sharply over the past few years. Compounding the misery, severe droughts and floods in 2009 and 2010 caused drastic food shortages in parts of the country. Many rural families lost their crops last year, forcing them to buy corn at unaffordable prices.


Vista de Ciudad de Guatemala.


Guatemalan President Álvaro Colom increased the minimum wage this year for most workers to $273 per month, hoping to ease living conditions for the urban and rural poor. The move is unlikely to have a dramatic impact, however: The National Statistics Institute puts the basic cost of living in Guatemala at $490 dollars per month.

The combination of all these factors explains why the World Bank considers Guatemala one of four countries in Latin America at risk of destabilization through food riots, along with Bolivia, Haiti and Honduras. But despite the troubling warning signs, none of the main presidential candidates has championed the issue.

"One of the biggest problems in Guatemala is speculation with prices and hoarding used to raise the prices of certain products, principally with regard to the subsistence diet," says Marvin del Cid, a political commentator and journalist at the El Periódico newspaper in Guatemala City. "But the issue is not something the different candidates seem to give a lot of importance. In fact, no one actually mentions it in their campaign promises."

The two main candidates in September's elections are Otto Pérez-Molina of the Patriotic Party, a retired army general and former presidential candidate with a get-tough-on-crime platform, and Sandra Torres, who was the country's first lady until she divorced Colom in March. Torres hopes to run as the National Union of Hope (UNE) candidate, but her divorce has been highly controversial, as many see it as a way to sidestep a Guatemalan law prohibiting presidential spouses from running for president. The country's Election Committee has already declared Torres' proposed candidacy invalid on more than one occasion, and the Supreme Court recently did the same.

In the meantime, neither candidate is addressing the rising cost of food, which looms as a destabilizing factor in the near future. "High food prices and the lack of food security contribute to an environment that is also facing a very violent conflict involving organized crime, corruption among elite groups in society and an election environment that is violent," says James Bosworth, a Nicaragua-based analyst of Latin American politics. "When there are high tensions, a spark can cause political instability to quickly overtake a government," he added. Large food riots have not taken place in Guatemala, but "the potential is definitely there," Bosworth says.

Guatemala's problems are not unique, but violence, poverty, corruption and the continuing economic slump are severely limiting the government's ability to effectively respond to them, Bosworth says. "Mexico and Brazil are facing similar problems, but those countries have both implemented some good anti-hunger programs. Guatemala doesn't have those resources," he explained.

Polls give Pérez-Molina a double-digit lead, but some analysts believe the food issue might help Torres, should she be allowed to run. As first lady, Torres' effective management of development programs, such as the government's anti-poverty initiative Bolsa Solidaria, bolstered her stature and support in rural areas. However, with her candidacy appearing more unlikely, the absence of food insecurity as a campaign issue could help Pérez-Molina gain a decisive advantage over his remaining opponents. Bosworth notes, "None of the other candidates will have the credibility on food aid programs that Torres might have."

Though food scarcity and high prices will continue to pose a serious threat to stability in Guatemala in the near future, public safety and violence remain at the top of the political agenda. Yet, with environmental issues due to climate change likely to become more severe, food insecurity will only take on added significance. And while the country will be hard-pressed to find the resources to solve the problem, time might be running out for it to find the political will to at least address it.

Jan-Albert Hootsen has been working as a freelance journalist based in Mexico City since 2009. He reports on national affairs and cultural and socio-economic issues for various Dutch media, including Trouw, De Pers, Radio Netherlands Worldwide and De Groene Amsterdammer.