World Citizen: Iran Crisis Increasingly Tied to North Korea
By Frida Ghitis, on
 |
| El Líder Supremo en un puesto de mando. |
When North Korea surprised the international community by detonating a nuclear device in February, America’s at the time brand new secretary of state, John Kerry, drew a link between Pyongyang and Tehran. Failure to respond decisively to North Korea’s provocation, Kerry warned, risked emboldening Iran. Kerry was suggesting that the impact of the North Korean crisis on Iran would come as a result of the conclusions Tehran might draw about its own nuclear program from closely observing international reactions to North Korea’s. But it is likely that the impact of the North Korean situation on the diplomatic standoff with Iran is more direct than Tehran’s observations from afar. In fact, technical cooperation and military trade between North Korea and Iran make the parallel between the two geographically distant crises more significant.
Tehran is undoubtedly drawing lessons from observing the interplay between North Korea and the West. It cannot escape notice in Tehran, for example, that despite North Korea’s catastrophic economic weakness, the regime in Pyongyang, now in possession of nuclear weapons, is viewed as a serious threat to be handled cautiously, even respectfully, by world powers fearful of triggering a nuclear confrontation. At the same time, the Iranian regime can easily discern that partly as a result of its nuclear weapons program, North Korea has become an international outcast, a place where foreign investors fear to tread, with even more devastating consequences for its crumbling economy.
The practical lessons drawn by Iran of North Korea’s defiance of the international community are undoubtedly an important reason why a successful response to Pyongyang by the West is important, but there is more.
At least as important are the direct links between the two countries.
Both Iran and North Korea started developing their nuclear programs through links with the nuclear trafficking network of Pakistani nuclear physicist A.Q. Khan, which spread nuclear technology to any country willing to pay for it. Over the years, Iran has benefited from North Korea’s progress in nuclear and missile technology. Iranian scientists were reportedly present at North Korea’s space launch last December, allowing Iran to gain the technical benefits without having to suffer the repercussions of such brazen behavior.
North Korean tests of missiles and nuclear devices come at a time when Iran is believed to have temporarily slowed its own nuclear enrichment program ahead of its June presidential election. As the election approaches, Tehran has apparently decided to leave its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium at less than 550 pounds, according to senior American and Israeli officials, enough for one nuclear weapon, but below the red line set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last September at the U.N. General Assembly. Officials of both the U.S. and Israel reportedly believe Iran’s decision is simply an attempt to make sure no attack comes before the elections. They fully expect high-level enrichment to resume after the vote.
In the meantime, North Korea is moving ostentatiously forward with its nuclear program, allowing Iran to collect the data it needs.
Some have suggested that North Korea offers Iran an even easier way to acquire a nuclear arsenal. Tehran could forgo the trouble of enriching any more nuclear materials, and simply buy the weapons from cash-starved Pyongyang.
Even before the latest North Korean escalation, officials in Washington had become concerned about growing cooperation, noting that the increasing closeness between Pyongyang and Tehran was reminiscent of the links between North Korea and Syria a decade ago. Those ties culminated with North Korea helping to build the Syrian nuclear reactor that Israel destroyed in 2007. North Korean technicians were seen playing a prominent role in building the facility, which was based on North Korean blueprints.
Last fall, Tehran and Pyongyang signed a memorandum of understanding on scientific cooperation that contained similar wording to the agreement signed between North Korean and Syria in 2002.
North Korea’s official news agency reported that the signing ceremony in Tehran brought together high-ranking North Korean officials, as well as the leaders of Iran’s Defense Ministry and atomic energy agency.
By the time North Korea conducted its nuclear test on Feb. 14, several news agencies, including Japan’s Kyodo, reported that Iranian scientists had likely attended the event. Iranian nuclear scientists were reportedly present during other key North Korean tests.
The two countries have widely different ideologies, but they have one fundamental area of agreement. As Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared, “The Islamic Republic of Iran and North Korea have common enemies.”
In addition to the development of nuclear devices, a key element of developing an effective nuclear arsenal is producing the means to deliver those weapons. On that count, ties between the two countries are well-established.
North Korean and Iranian missiles are virtual replicas of each other. North Korea has openly threatened to attack U.S. soil, which requires long-range missiles. Despite much mockery about its failed launches, Pyongyang was successful in its launch of a long-range missile into space in December.
American officials have reported that North Korea is a principal supplier of missile components to Iran, which boasts of having a vast arsenal of missiles capable of reaching Israel. A recent U.S. congressional report concluded that Iran is years away from having the capability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of crossing the ocean. And yet, in 2009, Iran launched an Omid satellite from its Safir rocket, claiming its aim is to put satellites in space for the purpose of collecting intelligence.
The dangerously escalating crisis between the West and North Korea is enormously important in its own right, but its consequences reverberate beyond the Korean Peninsula. Even if the current upsurge in North Korea’s provocative activities subsides, the impact of Pyongyang’s continuing missile development and military nuclear program could emerge as a challenge to the West thousands of miles from the Eastern Pacific, in its conflict with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly WPR column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.
Tehran is undoubtedly drawing lessons from observing the interplay between North Korea and the West. It cannot escape notice in Tehran, for example, that despite North Korea’s catastrophic economic weakness, the regime in Pyongyang, now in possession of nuclear weapons, is viewed as a serious threat to be handled cautiously, even respectfully, by world powers fearful of triggering a nuclear confrontation. At the same time, the Iranian regime can easily discern that partly as a result of its nuclear weapons program, North Korea has become an international outcast, a place where foreign investors fear to tread, with even more devastating consequences for its crumbling economy.
The practical lessons drawn by Iran of North Korea’s defiance of the international community are undoubtedly an important reason why a successful response to Pyongyang by the West is important, but there is more.
At least as important are the direct links between the two countries.
Both Iran and North Korea started developing their nuclear programs through links with the nuclear trafficking network of Pakistani nuclear physicist A.Q. Khan, which spread nuclear technology to any country willing to pay for it. Over the years, Iran has benefited from North Korea’s progress in nuclear and missile technology. Iranian scientists were reportedly present at North Korea’s space launch last December, allowing Iran to gain the technical benefits without having to suffer the repercussions of such brazen behavior.
North Korean tests of missiles and nuclear devices come at a time when Iran is believed to have temporarily slowed its own nuclear enrichment program ahead of its June presidential election. As the election approaches, Tehran has apparently decided to leave its stock of 20 percent enriched uranium at less than 550 pounds, according to senior American and Israeli officials, enough for one nuclear weapon, but below the red line set by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last September at the U.N. General Assembly. Officials of both the U.S. and Israel reportedly believe Iran’s decision is simply an attempt to make sure no attack comes before the elections. They fully expect high-level enrichment to resume after the vote.
In the meantime, North Korea is moving ostentatiously forward with its nuclear program, allowing Iran to collect the data it needs.
Some have suggested that North Korea offers Iran an even easier way to acquire a nuclear arsenal. Tehran could forgo the trouble of enriching any more nuclear materials, and simply buy the weapons from cash-starved Pyongyang.
Even before the latest North Korean escalation, officials in Washington had become concerned about growing cooperation, noting that the increasing closeness between Pyongyang and Tehran was reminiscent of the links between North Korea and Syria a decade ago. Those ties culminated with North Korea helping to build the Syrian nuclear reactor that Israel destroyed in 2007. North Korean technicians were seen playing a prominent role in building the facility, which was based on North Korean blueprints.
Last fall, Tehran and Pyongyang signed a memorandum of understanding on scientific cooperation that contained similar wording to the agreement signed between North Korean and Syria in 2002.
North Korea’s official news agency reported that the signing ceremony in Tehran brought together high-ranking North Korean officials, as well as the leaders of Iran’s Defense Ministry and atomic energy agency.
By the time North Korea conducted its nuclear test on Feb. 14, several news agencies, including Japan’s Kyodo, reported that Iranian scientists had likely attended the event. Iranian nuclear scientists were reportedly present during other key North Korean tests.
The two countries have widely different ideologies, but they have one fundamental area of agreement. As Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei declared, “The Islamic Republic of Iran and North Korea have common enemies.”
In addition to the development of nuclear devices, a key element of developing an effective nuclear arsenal is producing the means to deliver those weapons. On that count, ties between the two countries are well-established.
North Korean and Iranian missiles are virtual replicas of each other. North Korea has openly threatened to attack U.S. soil, which requires long-range missiles. Despite much mockery about its failed launches, Pyongyang was successful in its launch of a long-range missile into space in December.
American officials have reported that North Korea is a principal supplier of missile components to Iran, which boasts of having a vast arsenal of missiles capable of reaching Israel. A recent U.S. congressional report concluded that Iran is years away from having the capability to launch an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of crossing the ocean. And yet, in 2009, Iran launched an Omid satellite from its Safir rocket, claiming its aim is to put satellites in space for the purpose of collecting intelligence.
The dangerously escalating crisis between the West and North Korea is enormously important in its own right, but its consequences reverberate beyond the Korean Peninsula. Even if the current upsurge in North Korea’s provocative activities subsides, the impact of Pyongyang’s continuing missile development and military nuclear program could emerge as a challenge to the West thousands of miles from the Eastern Pacific, in its conflict with Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly WPR column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.
No hay comentarios:
Publicar un comentario