¿Se cae Maduro?

World Citizen: Maduro Flailing in Venezuela.

By Frida Ghitis, on 06 Jun 2013.

                 

 

Three months have passed since Nicolas Maduro took power in Venezuela following the death of Hugo Chavez, and almost 50 days since he became the country’s elected president. However one chooses to date his tenure, there is no denying that, as president, Maduro so far looks anything but commanding in his job.

Maduro narrowly managed to survive the election, with barely enough votes to keep the presidency in Chavista hands. Since that razor-thin, rather embarrassing performance, he has battled a constant stream of awkward difficulties, finding plenty to worry about at home and looking for enemies abroad.

In the short time since he assumed the office, Maduro has endured anger over shortages of the most basic of consumer products, faced rumors—and alleged evidence—of dangerous divisions within his United Socialist Party and accused a host of outsiders of stirring up troubles.

It all adds up to a picture that would make an image consultant cringe. But Maduro’s problems go much deeper than image.

The rhetorical missteps started when Venezuela’s abbreviated presidential election to succeed Chavez was launched. On April 9, his first day on the campaign trail, eager to capitalize on sympathy for the larger-than-life deceased president, Maduro said that Chavez had appeared to him in the form of a bird. He went into some detail, saying the tiny bird “started communicating” his wishes for a Maduro victory at the polls. Then he proceeded to mimic that bird, whistling the birdsong he exchanged with Chavez’s spirit.

It’s hard to know if the story of Chavez’s transfiguration and the late president’s reiteration of his endorsement in avian form helped Maduro gain votes. But the story elicited a great deal of eye-rolling and outright mockery, spawning countless cartoons and street corner comic impersonations. The acting president’s performance on the stump was not much help, either. Maduro lost a double-digit lead built from Chavez’s unequivocal endorsement, and crossed the finish line with a victory of just 1 percent over his challenger, Henrique Capriles.

The opposition maintains that the victory was the result of fraud, but Maduro has taken office. It seems unlikely that Capriles’ continuing protestations will push Maduro aside anytime soon.

The new president’s combative approach is an effort to take a page from his mentor’s manual, mustering passion and eschewing diplomatic language to fire up his followers’ antipathy against real and perceived enemies. But Maduro lacks what it takes to pull it off convincingly. Instead, he comes across as frightened and unsteady.

It didn’t help that one of the first consumer-level crises of his presidency was an acute shortage of toilet paper. Not surprisingly, the predicament spawned a thousand jokes, and efforts by the government to address the problem seemed impossible to carry out without bringing out more laughter.

A toilet paper shortage may serve as a humorous metaphor for what ails the country, but it’s a real inconvenience for Venezuelans. News reports are filled with stories of elderly women standing in long lines for a chance to buy the scarce commodity. As it happens, toilet paper is just one of many essential products in short supply.

The shortages were not caused by Maduro, who has not had enough time or political muscle to make any major economic changes. Instead, the troubles with supply and demand are the result of excessive tinkering with the economy by the government, echoing the tactics of the old command economies, and reminiscent of the last years of the Soviet Union. Price controls force producers to sell below cost, triggering a drop in supply. Currency controls have made it impossible for some business to import the goods they need, adding to the problem.

The treasury is depleted after an even larger than usual spending spree by Chavez in his quest for an electoral victory late last year, leaving Maduro with a deficit that has now tripled to 11 percent of gross national product. Currency devaluation has stoked inflation, all the result of policies that were in place before Maduro ever tried his hand at electoral politics.

And economic problems are raising sharp questions about Caracas’ generosity toward Cuba and other hemispheric allies.

As he faces massive problems, the president has to guard all flanks.

Before Chavez declared Maduro his heir, one of the top candidates to replace him was Diosdado Cabello, head of the National Assembly and a much more experienced political operator, still viewed by many as a rival within the socialist camp.

On May 20, the opposition released a recording of a conversation allegedly held between a prominent pro-government talk show host, Mario Silva, and a Cuban intelligence officer. Two men are heard discussing a Cabello conspiracy to overthrow Maduro and a potential military coup.

Silva denied he held such a conversation, blaming the CIA and even Mossad for what was clearly his voice on the tape. His show on national television was promptly cancelled.

Cabello also denied any disloyal intentions, and Defense Minister Diego Molero said the military would never consider a coup against Maduro.

The incident, however, did little to improve Maduro’s confidence. At one point, he lashed out at CNN’s Spanish language network, accusing it of promoting his overthrow and declaring that it has become “the tip of the spear in promoting [foreign] intervention,” a claim CNN vehemently denies. (In the interests of transparency, I am a former CNN staffer and a current contributor to CNN.com.)

When opposition leader Capriles traveled to Colombia and met with Colombia’s president, Juan Manuel Santos, Maduro fulminated against Santos’ “betrayal,” even though the Colombian president has diligently repaired bilateral ties since taking office in 2010. Maduro accused Colombia of directing a “psychological operation” and a “dirty war” aimed at destroying and dividing the Chavista movement.

His inflammatory rhetoric is aimed at revving up the Chavista base in order to consolidate his support. The country remains deeply divided, and the persistent economic problems are working against him. Chavez was able to weather economic difficulties by the sheer force of his personality. But Maduro seems incapable of defusing problems the way his hero did.

Of all the problems Maduro faces a few months into his presidency, his shortage of charisma may prove the most costly.

Frida Ghitis is an independent commentator on world affairs and a World Politics Review contributing editor. Her weekly WPR column, World Citizen, appears every Thursday.