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jueves, 5 de enero de 2012

2012: Año Nuevo, problemas viejos.



The New Rules: A Foreign Policy Wish List for 2012.


By Thomas P.M. Barnett | 02 Jan 2012.        

Last year was a tough one in terms of global economics, humanitarian disasters and political leadership among the world's great powers. But it was also the year of the glorious Arab Spring and hints of similar developments in Myanmar, Russia and Ethiopia. So while the year's "fundamentals," as the economists like to say, weren't so good, it left us with plenty to be grateful for as globalization continues to awaken the desire of individuals for freedom the world over. Keeping all that in mind, here is my foreign policy wish list for 2012.
 

 A decisive election in the United States. By decisive, I mean either President Barack Obama crushes a weak Republican opponent and the Democrats keep the Senate, or the GOP takes both houses of Congress and presumed Republican nominee Mitt Romney wins enough hearts and minds in a bad economy to capture the White House. A possible bright spot in the event that a re-elected Obama must govern with a GOP-controlled House and Senate is the likelihood that he would retreat into foreign policy, his sole space for genuine policy freedom, during his second term. As for Romney, should he win, look for his "tough on China" campaign rhetoric to dissolve into a business-like approach that moves beyond Obama's cartoonish containment strategy.

Putin takes a hint -- or doesn't. Russian puppet-master Vladimir Putin's announcement that he will be retaking the presidency from Dmitry Medvedev this year has triggered civil unrest in Russia of the sort we have not seen in a generation. If Putin were smart, he would admit that his time has passed, as his approval rating now stands at its all-time lowest. But his ego has reached escape velocity, and so his United Russia party is likely to do whatever it takes to forge an election victory in March. Hopefully, such open fraud will mobilize the public toward persistent protests, forcing Putin into a retreat of such magnitude as to render him a lame duck and open the system up for deep change come 2016.

Egypt's military steps up -- and back. The Egyptian military is succumbing to bad habits when it comes to battling anti-government protesters. The longer it does so, the more the generals will find themselves on the opposite side of the Arab street from the Muslim Brotherhood, whose support they will need in the years ahead to keep the government from falling unduly under the influence of the radical Salafist parties surging below. If the military turns over a country spiraling out of control, then it simply ensures that the Brotherhood will do whatever is necessary to establish its authority in parliament. And that could get ugly fast.

Maliki stops being so politically greedy in Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's recent efforts to retaliate against Sunni politicians seeking more autonomy for their tribes within Iraq's political system could easily segue into significant civil strife. Not only Sunnis, but Kurds, too, may turn to violence to protect their interests from Shiite extremists who seem intent on recreating a unitary state. Maliki either needs to become the father of an inclusive post-American Iraq or step aside and let somebody else -- possibly aged Kurdish patriarch and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani -- play that role temporarily. Because when the next civil war erupts, there won't be any American military presence to stem the blood-letting.

The West's embargo of Iranian oil succeeds . . . in making Iran China's problem. Obama is working an ambitious angle: stopping all Iranian oil exports to the West. That won't stop Beijing from stepping in further and securing long-term access to Iran's vast oil and gas reserves -- to the contrary, it will reinforce China's position in Iran. But this way Obama can claim he did everything reasonable to stop Iran's successful acquisition of the Bomb. So when Iran weaponizes -- sooner or later -- in response, at least we'll have placed China in the same hot seat it currently occupies with regard to North Korea.

Israel finally attacks Iran. The more it looks like Obama will win in 2012, the more Israel will be incentivized to proceed with its plans to attack Iran's nuclear facilities before November. Convinced that Obama will never go all the way on this issue, Israel will prefer to take its lumps from Washington during an election season, when the GOP will clearly rally to its side. The combination of this strike and the West's oil embargo will kick the can down the road a bit, and the time gained will be worth something as the Arab Spring continues to unfold.

North Korea chooses the path of reform. Having assumed the titular role of the country's new "dear leader," Kim Jong Un is apparently sharing power with a "gang of seven" committee that includes his aunt and her husband, Jang Song Taek. The latter has long been considered a moderating influence and is likely to be tasked with reforming the regime's moribund economy. With any luck, Kim Jong Un will get squeezed out over time, providing patron China with the opportunity to quietly retire the embarrassing House of Kim and enable a Deng Xiaoping-like transformation of the Hermit Kingdom.

Many more Wukans in China. This "village uprising" was different from most, in part because the protesters said they weren't challenging Communist Party rule, but primarily because Beijing actually compromised with this would-be breakaway government and promised recognition of the group and its demands. The story is an old one: local party officials selling off peasants' land for pocketed profits. The solution is even older: Beijing sacrifices some corrupt locals. But the lack of a harsh security crackdown is telling: The party is learning some lessons of the Arab Spring.

The European Union's Alexander Hamilton emerges. Europe's incremental approach is mind-numbing, but eventually some leader will have to step up and make the clear case for deep fiscal union. Hamilton did it for America, and his impact eventually triggered the rise of a multinational superpower that subsequently reshaped the world. Europe still harbors some ambitions with regard to globalization -- namely, its role as a normative superpower that shows the rest of us how to effectively regulate trade. But it can't play that role until it grows up.

Clearer knowledge of the environmental dangers of shale gas and "tight" oil "fracking." Proponents of this new drilling technique believe it heralds a new industrial renaissance for America's economy, and there is no question it could do the same for China, the only country that possesses greater shale gas reserves than the U.S. But America needs to do here what China will not: fully investigate the environmental impact of this revolutionary technology, to make sure the world exploits it safely.

Finally, to end this on a high note, here's hoping that Virgin Galactic makes its first commercial space flight. The faster private companies commercialize space, the sooner great powers -- especially Star Wars-happy America -- will move toward treaties that outlaw the weaponization of our final frontier.

Thomas P.M. Barnett is chief analyst at Wikistrat and a contributing editor for Esquire magazine. His eBook serial is "The Emily Updates: One Year in the Life of the Girl Who Lived" (September-December 2011). His weekly WPR column, The New Rules, appears every Monday. Reach him and his blog at thomaspmbarnett.com.

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