Historicamente, el momento más crítico de los regímenes autoritarios es el reemplazo del líder. Casi ninguno de ellos supera esta instancia, muchas veces dramática. La que se ve precedida de malos presagios y de una incertidumbre creciente entre sus seguidores.
March 14, 2012 5:57 pm
Rumours in Venezuela as Chávez returns
When President Hugo Chávez returns to Venezuela this week after an operation in Cuba to remove a cancerous lesion, he will find a country swirling with rumours.
With less than seven months to go before presidential elections, few know the true state of the socialist leader’s health. It is unclear whether he will even be able to stand, let alone campaign effectively, as he faces several weeks of radiotherapy and perhaps other treatment following his return from Havana.
There has been a palpable mood change in Venezuela since the start of the year, when the president appeared to have returned to larger-than-life form after his illness. Perhaps to prove the point, in January he gave what may have been the longest ever presidential speech, talking for almost 10 hours nonstop, assuring Venezuelans that he was “completely cured” from the cancer he was diagnosed with last June.
“The resurgence of Chávez’s illness has generated a climate of uncertainty,” said Maryclen Stelling, a Caracas-based sociologist who suspects that political tensions will heighten.
She described as a “precursor of what is to come” a recent incident in which government loyalists turned up on motorcycles at an opposition rally in a slum in northern Caracas. In the skirmish that followed, Mr Chávez’s challenger, Henrique Capriles Radonski, narrowly avoided a bullet that wounded a supporter standing nearby.
As well as the alarm and anxiety caused by the president’s health, his followers were further wrong-footed by Mr Capriles’ resounding victory in primary elections in mid-February that drew over 3m votes, far exceeding some government estimates of less than 1m.
Saúl Cabrera, a pollster at Consultores 21, argues that even before the primaries the two candidates had roughly equal chances of winning the presidential vote in October – but now Mr Capriles’ chances may have improved, he said.
“The likelihood of an opposition victory has increased,” says Daniel Kerner, an analyst at Eurasia Group, citing concerns about the president’s health. “Not only would his ability to campaign be diminished but, more importantly, independent voters may be wary of supporting a candidate that may not last his whole six-year term.”
This uncertainty has focused attention on who could replace the founder of the “Bolivarian revolution”, who has attempted to keep himself in the limelight with Twitter messages, telephone calls and cabinet meetings on state television, as well as releasing occasional photographs.
Mr Chávez has prevented a successor from emerging and senior government figures insist there is “no Plan B”. Still, speculation about who might replace the leader has centred on bus driver turned foreign minister Nicolás Maduro; the vice-president and former student radical Elias Jaua; and one of Mr Chávez’s former military colleagues, Diosdado Cabello, who was beaten by Mr Capriles in the elections to Miranda state in 2008.
The president’s brother, Adán, a state governor, and his daughters are also sometimes mentioned. But they all lack Mr Chávez’s charisma and popularity and most pollsters doubt they would prove much competition for Mr Capriles.
It may not come to that. Jorge Botti, president of the Fedecamaras business chamber, explained that after an ashen-faced Mr Chávez announced that he had been diagnosed with a “baseball-sized” cancerous tumour last year, senior government figures approached the business community in an attempt at a rapprochement should a transition government be needed.
“This time that has not happened,” he said. “There is obviously a lot of nervousness in government circles, but they seem to remain unified. If anything there has been a radicalisation as they crack down on price controls and blame shortages on the private sector,” he added.
Financial markets have revelled amid the uncertainty. Venezuela bonds have rallied by a remarkable 35 per cent in the past four months, as investors bet that the market-unfriendly president’s days are numbered.
Emilio Álvarez Serrano, an oncologist at the Red Cross hospital in Caracas, questions whether that is the case. “It’s just speculation but the most likely scenario is that Chávez has prostate cancer. If so, he could easily recover in time to campaign properly, as well survive another presidential term should he win,” he said
With less than seven months to go before presidential elections, few know the true state of the socialist leader’s health. It is unclear whether he will even be able to stand, let alone campaign effectively, as he faces several weeks of radiotherapy and perhaps other treatment following his return from Havana.
“We’re all praying for a speedy recovery for our Comandante,” self-confessed diehard chavista Glenda Colmenares said outside a church in central Caracas. “This is a difficult time for us but we have to have faith that Chávez will be OK. Without him there is no revolution.”
“The resurgence of Chávez’s illness has generated a climate of uncertainty,” said Maryclen Stelling, a Caracas-based sociologist who suspects that political tensions will heighten.
She described as a “precursor of what is to come” a recent incident in which government loyalists turned up on motorcycles at an opposition rally in a slum in northern Caracas. In the skirmish that followed, Mr Chávez’s challenger, Henrique Capriles Radonski, narrowly avoided a bullet that wounded a supporter standing nearby.
As well as the alarm and anxiety caused by the president’s health, his followers were further wrong-footed by Mr Capriles’ resounding victory in primary elections in mid-February that drew over 3m votes, far exceeding some government estimates of less than 1m.
Saúl Cabrera, a pollster at Consultores 21, argues that even before the primaries the two candidates had roughly equal chances of winning the presidential vote in October – but now Mr Capriles’ chances may have improved, he said.
“The likelihood of an opposition victory has increased,” says Daniel Kerner, an analyst at Eurasia Group, citing concerns about the president’s health. “Not only would his ability to campaign be diminished but, more importantly, independent voters may be wary of supporting a candidate that may not last his whole six-year term.”
This uncertainty has focused attention on who could replace the founder of the “Bolivarian revolution”, who has attempted to keep himself in the limelight with Twitter messages, telephone calls and cabinet meetings on state television, as well as releasing occasional photographs.
Mr Chávez has prevented a successor from emerging and senior government figures insist there is “no Plan B”. Still, speculation about who might replace the leader has centred on bus driver turned foreign minister Nicolás Maduro; the vice-president and former student radical Elias Jaua; and one of Mr Chávez’s former military colleagues, Diosdado Cabello, who was beaten by Mr Capriles in the elections to Miranda state in 2008.
The president’s brother, Adán, a state governor, and his daughters are also sometimes mentioned. But they all lack Mr Chávez’s charisma and popularity and most pollsters doubt they would prove much competition for Mr Capriles.
It may not come to that. Jorge Botti, president of the Fedecamaras business chamber, explained that after an ashen-faced Mr Chávez announced that he had been diagnosed with a “baseball-sized” cancerous tumour last year, senior government figures approached the business community in an attempt at a rapprochement should a transition government be needed.
“This time that has not happened,” he said. “There is obviously a lot of nervousness in government circles, but they seem to remain unified. If anything there has been a radicalisation as they crack down on price controls and blame shortages on the private sector,” he added.
Financial markets have revelled amid the uncertainty. Venezuela bonds have rallied by a remarkable 35 per cent in the past four months, as investors bet that the market-unfriendly president’s days are numbered.
Emilio Álvarez Serrano, an oncologist at the Red Cross hospital in Caracas, questions whether that is the case. “It’s just speculation but the most likely scenario is that Chávez has prostate cancer. If so, he could easily recover in time to campaign properly, as well survive another presidential term should he win,” he said
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CIUDAD DE BUENOS AIRES (Urgente24) - “Se alborotan los alacranes”, así está titulada la editorial del diario Tal Cual de este jueves, escrita por el periodista Teodoro Petkoff, en donde se refiere a la expulsión de José Gregorio “El Gato” Briceño, gobernador de Monagas, de las filas del Partido Socialista de Venezuela.
“El estallido abierto podría explicarse por dos causas, al menos. Por un lado, demuestra, por razones obvias, el grado de erosión del liderazgo de Chávez; por otro, muestra la resistencia que genera la aspiración, ya inocultable, de Cabello de hacerse con la herencia de Chávez”, señaló.
En tal sentido, “algo deben saber, o quizás intuir, en la cúpula del PSUV, con respecto a la salud de su jefe, que los demonios han comenzado a saltar”.
Es que la ausencia de Chávez, sumada a su personalismo extremo, está mostrando que las que en un principio eran pequeñas fisuras, ya se convierten en grietas insondables al interior del movimiento bolivariano.
Los rayos de cobalto de la radioterapia, a la que se sometió tras la tercera operación quirúrgica por un tumor cancerígeno en la zona pélvica, por fuerza tienen que fortalecer la salud de Chávez, puesto que el panorama en el Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV) no se presenta nada tranquilo. Al contrario, la frágil unidad de la organización amenaza con hacer agua.
El descontento de los sectores chavistas de base tiene que ver con los nombramientos "a dedo" de los candidatos a gobernadores. Ninguno de los 16 gobernadores chavistas están seguros de si se presentarán a la reelección, porque dependen de la decisión de Hugo Chávez, enfermo en Cuba.
Y lo más preocupante para estos gobernadores es que el mandatario hasta ahora sólo ha elegido a gente de su entorno más cercano: ha presentado las candidaturas a gobernador del vicepresidente, Elías Jaua, para el Estado de Miranda; del canciller, Nicolás Maduro, para Carabobo; del ministro del Interior, Tarek el Aissami, para Táchira; de Luis Reyes Reyes, para Lara, y de Francisco Arias Cárdenas para Zulia. Aparentementem la decisión del mandatario se debe a la baja imagen de los gobernadores en sus distritos.
En este marco, al interior de chavismo hay una corriente que se quiere oponer a los designios del mandatario. La corriente, a cargo del ex diputado del PSUV, Edwin Zambrano, pide la revocación de las candidaturas elegidas por Chávez. "Así como Chávez acaba de hacer un consejo de Ministros desde Cuba, también debería dirigirse al partido y revocar esas candidaturas que decidió a dedo. Debería llamar a un proceso interno como las primarias", dice Zambrano.
El exdiputado chavista tiene dudas sobre la capacidad real de Chávez de continuar al frente del PSUV y del Gobierno, a la vista de la evolución de su enfermedad. "Hay una concepción equivocada en la dirección del partido. Ellos piensan que la magnificación de Chávez es la clave para continuar con el proceso, pero no es así. La mayoría de los venezolanos quieren una vida política más democrática, unos liderazgos menos personalistas", agregó. A su juicio, el PSUV es "apenas una maquinaria electoral, en la que los militantes no pueden ejercer sus derechos políticos. Hay un líder que decide todo".
El gobernador del Estado de Monagas, José Gregorio Briceño (oficialista), se enfrentó con el presidente de la Asamblea Nacional, Diosdado Cabello, por la contaminación del río Guarapiche a causa de un derrame de petróleo. Cabello ocupa el segundo lugar, después del vicepresidente, en la línea sucesoria de la Presidencia, según la Constitución. Hace tres años fue derrotado en Miranda por el actual gobernador y candidato único de la oposición, Henrique Capriles.
La situación obligó que desde Cuba, Chávez les llamara la atención y reclamara "lealtad" al proceso "a pesar de los fallos". "No se dejen engañar por las trampas de la burguesía. Hay que ser leales al Gobierno y a la batalla victoriosa de octubre", les recriminó.
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